How will the TKB Home Index develop in 2026?

The 3-point orientation

• The TKB real estate index of April 16, 2026 shows price growth of 4.5 percent for Thurgau over twelve months — well above the Swiss average of 3.6 percent.
• With +5 percent annual growth, the district of Weinfelden is the top performer in the canton and is one of the most dynamic districts in Switzerland. Kreuzlingen and the lake communities have top prices of around 2 million francs for a model house.
• Despite strong growth, Thurgau is in the lower middle of the country in terms of price, which continues to make it attractive for first-time buyers and newcomers from the greater Zurich region.

What is the TKB Home Index?

The TKB real estate index is the most important barometer for the Thurgau real estate market. Published by Thurgauer Kantonalbank -- the largest financial institution in the canton --, it is published twice a year in spring and autumn. The index records the price development of single-family homes and condominiums at district level and compares them with the Swiss average. In doing so, it not only provides a snapshot, but also enables the analysis of long-term trends and regional differences within the canton.

The methodology is based on actual transaction data, supplemented by hedonic valuation models that take into account property characteristics such as location, condition, living space and year of construction. This makes the index more reliable than pure offer price analyses, which only reflect what sellers are asking for -- not what is actually being paid.

The key figures: Thurgau is growing faster than Switzerland

The spring 2026 edition provides a clear picture: The Thurgau home market has decoupled from the national average -- upwards.

• 12-month growth in Thurgau: +4.5 percent (Switzerland: +3.6 percent)
• 6-month growth in Thurgau: +2.0 percent (Switzerland: +2.0 percent)
• Model house 180 m² (Thurgau average): around 1.45 million francs
• Model house 180 m² (Kreuzlingen/Seegemeinden): around 2.0 million francs

The division of dynamics is remarkable: Over twelve months, Thurgau has grown significantly faster than Switzerland, and is on an equal footing over six months. This suggests that the growth advantage was achieved primarily in the second half of 2025 -- possibly fuelled by the vote to abolish imputed rental value and the associated planning security for buyers.

The district comparison: Where are prices rising the most?

The TKB home index reveals significant regional differences within the canton. The following table shows a comparison of the most important districts:

Weinfelden: The Weinfelden district is the big surprise of the latest issue. With annual price growth of 5 percent, it is not only at the forefront of the canton, but is also one of the most dynamic districts in all of Switzerland. The reasons are complex: good transport connections (hub in the Thurgau rail network), a growing range of new buildings, a lively small town atmosphere and - not to be underestimated - prices that are still below the cantonal average despite growth. Weinfelden is thus specifically attracting buyers for whom Kreuzlingen or Frauenfeld are already too expensive.

Kreuzlingen and the lake communities: Lake Constance pays the most -- around 2 million francs for a model house. At 3.5 to 4 percent, price growth is solid, but slightly lower than in the hinterland. The reason: a level effect. Companies that are already operating at a high price level are growing more slowly in percentage terms, even though the absolute price gains remain considerable. The municipalities of Bottighofen, Gottlieben and Horn are among the most expensive addresses in the canton and are priced at parts of the Zurich lake basin

comparable.

What drives prices?

Three factors determine price dynamics in Thurgau:

• Attractive mortgage interest rates: Interest rates have historically remained at moderate levels. This reduces the monthly burden and expands the circle of potential buyers. Demand remains correspondingly high.
• Immigration from the greater Zurich region: More and more families and couples are consciously choosing Thurgau -- attracted by lower prices, more living space and a higher quality of life. This demand pressure from the metropolitan region is a structural driver that is unlikely to weaken in the coming years.
• Limited offer: As in the whole of Switzerland, the supply of building land and existing properties is limited in Thurgau. The zoning of new building zones is restrictive, and construction activity is not keeping pace with demand. The result: a classic demand overhang scenario that continues to drive prices higher.

Classification: Thurgau in a national context

Despite above-average price growth, Thurgau remains in the lower midrange nationally. A model house worth 1.45 million francs is still cheap compared to Zurich (4.5 million), Zug (3.8 million) or Lake Geneva (3.5 million). This price gap is both the biggest opportunity and the biggest risk on the Thurgau market: It makes the canton attractive to newcomers, but could close in the medium term if demand persists and supply remains tight.

For prospective buyers, this means that anyone who wants to buy in Thurgau should not hesitate too long. Entry prices are still relatively moderate, but the trend is clearly upwards. Prices are likely to rise further, particularly in the dynamic districts of Weinfelden, Kreuzlingen and Frauenfeld.

Forecast: What's next?

The fall 2026 edition of the TKB Home Index will show whether the high rate of growth can be maintained. The fundamental demand drivers -- low interest rates, inflows, scarce supply -- remain intact. An abrupt fall in prices is unlikely under these conditions. A continuation of the upward trend is more realistic, perhaps with slightly less momentum, as price levels in the most popular districts are increasingly reaching the limits of affordability.

The abolition of imputed rental value from 2029 could provide an additional impetus for demand in the medium term, as residential property becomes more attractive from a tax perspective -- particularly for owners with low or no mortgage burden.

Common misconceptions

• “The TKB home index only shows offer prices.” -- Wrong. The index is based on transaction data and hedonic valuation models that take actual paid prices and objective characteristics into account. It is therefore more reliable than pure advertisement analyses.
• “4.5 percent price growth means that a property will double in 15 years.” -- Theoretically yes, virtually unlikely. Price growth is rarely linear. Economic fluctuations, interest rate changes and regulatory interventions can slow down the trend at any time. The index is a snapshot, not a guarantee of the future.
• “Everything is expensive on Lake Constance -- everything is cheap in the hinterland.” -- Too flat. Districts such as Weinfelden show that the hinterland is also recording dynamic price increases. Conversely, not all maritime communities are equally expensive. The price landscape in Thurgau is more differentiated than the simple narrative “sea = expensive” suggests.

Conclusion: The TKB home index as a compass for buying decisions

The TKB Ownership Index 2026 paints a picture of a cantonal market that has left its niche. With price growth of 4.5 percent above the Swiss average, a Weinfelden district at the top of the country and premium prices on Lake Constance of around 2 million francs, Thurgau has consolidated its position as a serious real estate location. For prospective buyers, the index provides a valuable basis for decision-making - and a clear message: The era of bargains in Thurgau is drawing to a close, but the opportunities to get started are still there. Anyone who uses them invests in a market with substance, dynamism and perspective.

Glossary on the 2026 TKB Home Index

• TKB home index: An index published every six months by the Thurgauer Kantonalbank, which records the price development of single-family homes and condominiums in the canton of Thurgau and compares them with the Swiss average.
• Hedonic evaluation model: A statistical method for valuing real estate that estimates the price based on objective characteristics (location, size, condition, year of construction) -- regardless of the subjective offer price.
• transaction data: Data based on actually concluded purchase contracts, as opposed to offer prices, which only reflect the seller's price expectation.
• level effect: The phenomenon that real estate in expensive locations grows more slowly in percentage terms than in cheaper locations -- although the absolute price increase in Swiss francs may be similar or even higher.
• excess demand: A market situation in which demand for real estate exceeds available supply, which usually leads to rising prices.
• model house: A standardized reference property (e.g. 180 m² of living space, medium standard of construction), which is used for regional and supra-regional price comparisons.
• Hedonic price adjustment: The adjustment of price changes for differences in the quality of traded objects so that only the pure change in market prices is measured.
• District dynamics: The relative strength of price developments in a particular district compared to the cantonal or national average.